drieuxster (drieuxster) wrote,
drieuxster
drieuxster

Why Not Nuke Iran?

As some may be aware, the current administration is moving forward on it's "concern" that Iran may gain the ability to make weapons grade nuclear devices. Some will recall that in the early days of the run up to liberating Iraq, many of the TV talking heads would get confused, as they were handed briefing material about Iran's Nuclear Industry, which offered some small cognitive dissonance as they tried to stay on message about the need to stop the Iraqi Flying Saucer Programme.

Well Iran is on the move again, and is currently repatriating it's overseas assets, pulling potentially Billions of Dollars out of Europe.

Some of the so called right wing loonies have been talking in terms of Nuke First and ask questions later. Which really is one of the options open, and at the rate things are going, unfortunately is one of the only real live options that remains open to americans.

For those who have been following the ability of the American Armed Forces to meet their recruiting goals, there is the minor problem that we are not getting enough Boot Fillers to round out the required level of conventional forces that would be required to take on an open stand up fight with Iran. Not to mention being able to go through the full process of occupation and the establishment of a new regime in Iran. So the general notion of a more traditional 'iraq style' liberation is not at all plausible. Even IF the president can do his majik with showing that he has tried all of the other 'peaceful' solutions, and that he was forced into restoring the wetlands in Iran.

We also need to look at the reality that both China and Russia have economic interests in Iran, not to mention India. So it is not likely that even IF the american president were able to get anyone in the world to believe that he really was limiting his requrest to merely a collective security interest based upon a UN sponsored sanctions regime, that they would be any more willing to play 'ball' with the american president. We blew that gag with ThatIraqiThingiePoo, and the complete waste of political capital.

At which point we wind up without many viable conventional options - yes, we could try the usual 'air bombardment', but to what end?

Why not go Nuclear Early? This would put the whole world on notice that the Americans are no longer worried about global political opinion. That we are not going to be worried about any questions before any international court, or court of public opinion, and that we have what it takes to embark upon the full on 'dominator theory'.

The pessimists will of course worry that China or the Russians might retaliate against america for a pre-emptive nuclear war of political expediency. But the reality is more likely that they will enjoy the fact that they are no longer going to be painted as the 'bad guys'. China will have a free hand liberating Taiwan, and with it, the open access to the Sea that their new naval power would afford them. Russia would be able to solve issues with the troublesome Ukrainians. So these major nuclear powers have more to gain by supporting the american process of pre-emptive nuclear wars of political expediencies.

At which point we are looking at the minor nuclear powers. What are they going to do? Will the british risk brighton for Teheran? Or the French?

So we arrive at the general solution space where we start by targetting the major urban centers, so that we do not have to worry about any complications with the pacification programme. Let alone the need to actually occupy Iran. They learn that it is important for them to bring enough oil onto the global market to keep us happy. They also learn that if we do not like their politics, we still have more nukes.

It's a win win strategy.

The alternative would be to engage in mere diplomacy, and deal with the economic realities of an american government that is burrying itself in debt, and enmeshed in failed global military antics that it can not afford at the fiscal or political level.

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